5 · THINK IN RANGES · LESSON 22 OF 29 · 7 min
Bluffs and fold equity
A bluff wins when better hands fold. Fold equity is the value of that chance. A good bluff has a believable story, a target that can actually fold, and a size that asks a meaningful question. If the opponent calls almost everything, the same bluff loses its reason.
A river bet representing a completed flush might work against a cautious player holding one pair. It is less convincing if your earlier actions would rarely contain a flush.
A bluff needs a hand that can fold
Fold equity is the value of winning when an opponent folds. To estimate it, start with the hands they could have reached this street with. Divide them into hands that likely fold, hands that likely call, and hands that might raise. A bluff aimed at a player who calls almost every pair has little fold equity against those pairs, however convincing your own story feels.
There is a useful break-even shortcut for a pure river bluff with no chance to win if called. If the pot is 20 and you bet 10, you risk 10 to win 20. The opponent must fold more than 10/(20 + 10), or one third of the time, for that bet to profit in this simplified model. Bet 20 into 20 and the required fold frequency rises to one half. A bigger bet may cause more folds, but it also needs more of them to justify the extra risk.
The prepared 6♠5♠ hand missed its spade and straight draws. Its weak ace-high has little showdown value on A♦7♠2♠9♥4♣. Maya checked every street. Those checks make some very strong hands less likely, but they do not erase all pairs or prove that any pair will fold. Your task is to identify the foldable portion of her range, not to bluff merely because the draw missed.
Before betting the prepared river, name the exact better hands you hope to fold. Estimate whether they make up at least one third of Maya's range for a half-pot bet.
Do not bluff just because your draw missed. Ask what better hands can fold and why.
MAKE THE CALL
Against a player who never folds a pair, what happens to a bluff aimed at pairs?
Start with a prepared decision, then play the rest of the hand with practice chips. Turn on guidance to see the trainer's reasoning.