The Super Match Side Bet: Wins 38.7% of the Time, Costs 2.55%
Last reviewed: August 2026
Super Match resolves on the four cards you’re dealt at the start of a Blackjack Switch round, before any switching. It pays on 38.7% of deals, nearly two in five, which is an unusually high hit rate for a side bet and exactly why it feels like free money. It costs 2.55%, over four times the base game’s 0.58%. The trick is in which hand does the winning.
The paytable
| Hand | Pays | Probability | Roughly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four of a kind | 40:1 | 0.0357% | 1 in 2,804 |
| Two pair | 8:1 | 1.5342% | 1 in 65 |
| Three of a kind | 5:1 | 1.9567% | 1 in 51 |
| Pair | 1:1 | 35.2205% | 1 in 2.8 |
| Nothing: loses | −1 | 61.2530% | , |
These are ours, not borrowed: an exact enumeration of all 387,278,970 four-card combinations from a six-deck shoe, recomputed by our test suite on every run so the numbers on the page can’t drift from the engine that produces them. They reproduce the published probabilities exactly.
Where the money actually goes
Look at the hit rate first. You win something on 38.75% of deals. Compare that with most casino side bets, which pay out on well under 10% of hands, and you can see why Super Match reads as generous at the table. It genuinely does hit constantly.
Now look at what you win. A pair pays 1:1, it hands your stake back with an equal amount, and it makes up 35.22 of those 38.75 percentage points. More than nine out of every ten Super Match wins are the smallest possible win.
So the arithmetic runs like this. Out of 100 deals:
- 35.2 pay you 1 unit
- 1.96 pay you 5 units
- 1.53 pay you 8 units
- 0.036 pay you 40 units
- 61.25 take a unit away from you
Add it up and you’re down about 2.55 units per 100 wagered. The frequent small wins are the mechanism, not an exception to it: they keep the bet feeling alive while the 61% of empty deals quietly does the work.
Why four cards makes a pair so likely
The reason the hit rate is so high has nothing to do with generosity. You’re being dealt four cards, not two, and a pair only requires any two of them to match in rank.
With four cards there are six possible pairings among them, and in a six-deck shoe there are 23 other cards of any given rank still available. That’s why a pair shows up on better than one deal in three. The casino isn’t being kind; it’s pricing a bet on an event that was always going to happen constantly, and paying you even money for it.
How it compares
At 2.55%, Super Match sits in ordinary side-bet territory: worse than the base game by a factor of more than four, but nowhere near the worst thing on a casino floor. For context, insurance in blackjack runs about 5.88%, and the Big Six wheel charges between 11% and 22% depending on the spot.
That is the fairest thing to say about it. Super Match is not a scandal. It is simply four times more expensive than the game it’s attached to, on the same four cards you were already being dealt for 0.58%.
The practical advice
If you play $10 a round on Blackjack Switch, you’re wagering $20 on the base game at 0.58%, costing about 12 cents a round. Add a $5 Super Match and you’ve added roughly 13 cents of expected cost; you have doubled the price of the round for a quarter more action.
That is the whole case against it. Not that it never pays, because it pays more often than almost any side bet you’ll meet, but that the money it costs buys you the least efficient action on the table.
The Odds tab of our simulator prices every line of the paytable from the same enumeration, and you can turn Super Match on in the Play felt to watch it hit constantly and still drain, which is more convincing than any table of numbers.