Craps Come-Out Phase vs. Point Phase
Last reviewed: June 2026
Every craps hand moves through two mathematically distinct phases — the come-out roll and the point phase — and knowing exactly what the dice are doing in each one unlocks everything else about the game.
Most new players stare at the craps layout and feel overwhelmed by the sheer number of bets. But underneath all of that noise, the game has a clean two-act structure. The first act, the come-out roll, resolves immediately about a third of the time. The second act, the point phase, is a pure race between one specific number and the number 7. Get comfortable with that framework and the rest of craps falls into place.
For a broader introduction to the game before diving into the phase math, see How to Play Craps.
Act One: The Come-Out Roll
A new shooter (or the same shooter after the previous hand ended) begins with a come-out roll. The Pass Line bet lives or dies instantly on three possible outcomes:
| Come-out result | Numbers | Ways to roll | Probability | Pass Line result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural | 7 or 11 | 8 of 36 | 22.2% | Win immediately |
| Craps | 2, 3, or 12 | 4 of 36 | 11.1% | Lose immediately |
| Point | 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10 | 24 of 36 | 66.7% | Sets the point; game continues |
So on any given come-out roll, roughly one in five outcomes is an instant win, about one in nine is an instant loss, and two out of three land on a point number and push the hand into phase two.
The asymmetry between naturals (22.2%) and craps (11.1%) is exactly why the Pass Line has any appeal at all. If those probabilities were equal, the come-out phase would be a break-even coin flip. Because naturals are twice as likely as craps, the come-out phase leans slightly in the player’s favor — but that edge is offset by the math of the point phase, producing the well-known 1.41% house edge on the Pass Line overall (exactly 7/495 per wager).
Act Two: The Point Phase
Once a point is established — say the shooter rolled a 6 — the puck flips to “ON” and sits on that number. From this moment forward, only two outcomes matter: the point number repeating (Pass Line wins) or a 7 appearing (Pass Line loses). Every other number is irrelevant to the Pass Line; those rolls simply keep the hand alive.
The win probability in the point phase depends entirely on how many ways the point can be rolled versus how many ways a 7 can be rolled.
| Point | Ways to make point | Ways to roll 7 | P(Pass wins in point phase) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 or 10 | 3 | 6 | 3/(3+6) = 33.3% |
| 5 or 9 | 4 | 6 | 4/(4+6) = 40.0% |
| 6 or 8 | 5 | 6 | 5/(5+6) = 45.5% |
This is why experienced players wince slightly when the point is 4 or 10. A 33.3% win rate during the point phase means the shooter loses that phase twice for every win. A point of 6 or 8 is comparatively comfortable at 45.5% — nearly a coin flip.
Notice that the denominator in each fraction counts only the point number and 7, not all 36 outcomes. That reflects the underlying math: because every other roll simply continues the hand, it has no effect on the eventual result. This is an application of conditional probability — you condition on the hand ending, then ask which way it ends.
Free Odds: A Phase-Two-Only Bet
The single best bet in the casino — free odds (also called “taking odds”) — is only available during the point phase, placed behind your Pass Line wager after the point is set. Free odds pay at true mathematical odds with zero house edge, which is why no casino advertises them prominently.
The combined edge of your Pass Line wager plus free odds depends on how large a free-odds multiple the casino allows:
- 1× odds behind: combined edge drops to roughly 0.85% on total action
- 2× odds: roughly 0.61%
- 3-4-5× odds (the most common casino default): roughly 0.37%
- 10× odds: roughly 0.18%
For a deep dive on sizing and strategy, see Craps Odds Bets.
Come Bets: A Come-Out Inside the Point Phase
A Come bet is placed after a point is established and behaves exactly like a new, personal come-out roll for that bet. The very next roll after you place a Come bet acts as its come-out: 7 or 11 wins the Come bet instantly, 2/3/12 loses it, and any other number becomes that bet’s personal point. The dealer moves your Come bet to that number on the layout, and from then on it races the same 7-or-point math described above.
Come bets carry the same 1.41% house edge as the Pass Line and can also receive free odds once a Come-point is established. The main practical difference is timing: Come bets let you have action on multiple point numbers simultaneously, even during a single shooter’s hand. See Craps Come and Don’t Come Bets for full coverage.
Why the Two-Phase Structure Matters
Understanding the phase structure prevents two common mistakes. First, players sometimes panic during a long point phase with no resolve and conclude the game is “rigged” or that patterns are forming. They are not — each roll is independent, and the hand simply continues until the math resolves it. Second, players sometimes forget that the 7 is only the enemy during the point phase. On the come-out roll, a 7 is the best possible outcome for a Pass Line bettor. The puck’s ON/OFF position tells you which phase you are in and therefore which team the 7 is on.
A full breakdown of how this two-phase structure feeds into Pass Line vs. Don’t Pass strategy is at Craps Pass vs. Don’t Pass.
Frequently Asked
Why does the come-out roll favor Pass Line bettors but the point phase does not? On the come-out, naturals (7, 11) occur on 8 of 36 rolls while craps (2, 3, 12) occur on only 4 of 36 — a 2-to-1 advantage for the Pass Line. In the point phase, the 7 has more ways to appear than any single point number, so the Pass Line is the underdog. Those two effects combine to produce the overall 1.41% house edge.
Can I remove my Pass Line bet once a point is set? Casinos allow it mathematically, but almost none will stop you — however, it is a bad idea. The come-out phase is where the Pass Line has its best odds. Once a point is set you are in the unfavorable race against the 7, but removing the bet locks in a loss on the portion of the expected-value math that already worked in your favor during the come-out. Experienced players leave Pass Line bets up through the point phase.
Does the number of rolls in the point phase affect the odds? No. Each roll is independent. Whether it takes 3 rolls or 30 rolls to resolve the point, the probability of the Pass Line winning was fixed the moment the point was set — 33.3%, 40.0%, or 45.5% depending on the point number. Prior rolls provide no information about the next one.
What happens to free odds if the hand ends? Free odds bets are always “working” during the point phase. If the 7 appears (7-out), both the Pass Line wager and the free odds bet lose. If the point repeats, both win — the Pass Line pays even money and the free odds pay at true odds (2:1 for a point of 4 or 10, 3:2 for 5 or 9, and 6:5 for 6 or 8).
Sources & Further Reading
- Wizard of Odds — Craps: complete probability tables and house edge calculations for every craps bet.
- Craps Dice Probability — how the 36-outcome sample space is constructed and why 7 has more combinations than any other total.
- Craps Optimal Strategy — how to combine phase knowledge with free odds to minimize the house edge across a full session.
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