Blackjack Odds & Payouts Explained
Last reviewed: October 2026
Changing a natural blackjack payout from 3:2 to 6:5 adds roughly 1.4 percentage points to the house edge. It does not make the total edge 1.4%. If an otherwise identical 3:2 game has an edge around 0.5%, the 6:5 version is around 1.9%.
The exact figures depend on the deck count, rules, and strategy. Start by reading the payout sign, then match your basic strategy to the whole game.
Standard payout table
The first five examples use a $100 original wager. Insurance is a separate $50 wager, the usual maximum against that $100 bet.
| Event | Net result | Money returned, including any returned stake |
|---|---|---|
| Winning natural at 3:2 | +$150 | $250 |
| Winning natural at 6:5 | +$120 | $220 |
| Ordinary win at 1:1 | +$100 | $200 |
| Push | $0 | $100 |
| Surrender | -$50 | $50 |
| Winning $50 insurance wager at 2:1 | +$100 on insurance | $150 on insurance |
A natural is an ace and a ten-value card in the initial two-card hand. A three-card 21 is ordinarily an even-money win, and 21 after splitting is usually not a natural. If both player and dealer have a natural, the main bet normally pushes.
The 3:2 vs. 6:5 gap
On each winning $100 natural, 6:5 pays $30 less. Naturals that push against a dealer natural do not create that difference.
For a fresh six-deck shoe, the probability of a player natural is:
2 × (24/312) × (96/311) = about 4.75%.
After those cards are removed, the dealer-natural probability is 2 × (23/310) × (95/309). Multiplying the chance of a player natural without a dealer natural by the lost 0.3-unit payment gives about 0.0136 units per opening bet, or 1.36 percentage points. Different deck counts change the exact figure; “roughly 1.4 points” is a useful rounded comparison.
This calculation isolates the payout change in an ordinary peek game. It is not a complete house-edge calculation. For the broader rule comparison, see 3:2 versus 6:5.
Insurance: the side bet hiding in plain sight
Insurance wins at 2:1 when the dealer has a natural under an ace upcard. Let p be the probability that the hole card has ten-point value. The expected net result per unit of insurance is:
2p - (1 - p) = 3p - 1.
The break-even probability is therefore one third. In an infinite-deck approximation, p = 4/13, giving an expected result of -1/13, or a 7.69% house edge on the insurance wager. The 4 counts ten, jack, queen, and king.
For a finite shoe, use the actual remaining tens and unseen cards; 7.69% is not a universal exact rate. Known-card removal changes the probability. Ordinary basic strategy declines insurance. Calling it protection does not make its own expected return positive, even when a win offsets a loss on the main hand. See insurance and side bets.
Side bets (21+3, Perfect Pairs, Bust Bonus)
Side wagers have separate rules and paytables. A matching-rank bet, a three-card poker bet, and a dealer-bust bet do not share one house edge. Even two tables using the same side-bet name can pay differently.
Check the exact award schedule, deck count, eligible cards, and whether a losing main hand affects settlement. A large top prize tells you the payment for that outcome, not how often it occurs. Main-game basic strategy does not turn a separate side wager into a better bet.
What the house edge actually means per session
Here is an illustrative comparison using a 0.50% starting edge and the six-deck payout penalty above:
| Condition | Approximate edge on that wager | Expected loss per $1,000 of that wager |
|---|---|---|
| Hypothetical 3:2 main game | 0.50% | $5.00 |
| Otherwise identical 6:5 game | 1.86% | $18.60 |
| Insurance, infinite-deck model | 7.69% | $76.90 |
These are averages over total wagering, not promised session losses. The insurance row means $1,000 wagered on insurance itself. It must not be applied to $1,000 of main-game bets or simply added to the main-game percentage without accounting for how often and how much you insure.
Finding the right table
Read the natural payout, soft-17 rule, deck count, and split, double, and surrender options. Check the minimum wager against your budget. Do this for online tables as well as physical ones; neither location guarantees a particular payout.
A lower percentage edge at a much larger bet can still mean more expected dollars lost. Choose affordable stakes, then use the blackjack trainer to learn the matching decisions.
Frequently asked
Does a 3:2 payout guarantee a 0.5% house edge?
No. That figure is an illustration for a reasonable rule set and correct play. Other rules and decision errors change it.
Can insurance ever have positive expected value?
Mathematically, yes, if the conditional probability of a dealer natural is greater than one third at a 2:1 payout. That requires evidence about the cards, not a feeling that blackjack is due. Without such information, follow basic strategy and decline it.
Does a big side-bet win prove the bet was good?
No. Evaluate its probabilities and payouts together. One outcome cannot establish its long-run expected return.
Educational explanation only. No real-money gambling happens on LearnTheOdds.
Responsible gambling: Play for entertainment, not income; the math favors the house over time. Set limits, never chase losses, and if it stops being fun, take a break. 21+. Need help? Call 1-800-MY-RESET (1800myreset.org).