Set your ante and deal.
It's a tie! Double your bet and go to war, or surrender half.
Free game, fun credits only — no real money. Optimal play: always go to war, never surrender, never take the Tie bet.
The dashed gold line is the exact house edge, 2.88%. Short runs swing wildly; the more hands you play, the tighter the observed edge hugs it — the house edge is a long-run certainty, not a per-hand one. For contrast: surrendering every tie is 3.70%, and the Tie side bet is a brutal 18.65%.
Casino War is the simplest game on the floor — one card each, higher wins. And yet the exact math, below, shows it still tilts to the house. Every figure is closed-form (no simulation) for a 6-deck shoe.
(23 in 311)
(same for the dealer)
What each bet really costs
| Bet / choice | House edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Go to war (on a tie) | 2.88% | Optimal play |
| Surrender (on a tie) | 3.70% | Costs 0.82% more — never do it |
| Tie side bet (10:1) | 18.65% | Sucker bet — ~6× the main edge |
Why it works out this way
- No tie (about 93% of hands): a coin flip — you win or lose one unit, and it washes out to zero on its own.
- A tie (7.40%): here's the catch. Go to war and you must double your bet, but a win only pays even money on the raise — the original ante just pushes. Win 54%‑ish of wars (ties go to you) for +1 unit; lose the rest for −2 units. That asymmetry is the entire house edge.
- Surrendering hands back half your ante every tie — a flat 3.70% drag, worse than the 2.88% from always warring. So the rule is simple: always go to war, never surrender.
- The Tie bet pays 10:1 but a tie hits only 7.40% of the time — a fair payout would be about 12.5:1. That gap is a brutal 18.65% edge. Skip it.
Does the deck count matter?
A little — more decks means a slightly higher tie chance, so a slightly higher edge. Still tiny either way:
| Decks | Go-to-war house edge |
|---|---|
| 1 | 2.42% |
| 2 | 2.70% |
| 6 | 2.88% |
| 8 | 2.90% |
The exact odds of Casino War — even the simplest game keeps 2.88%. Fun credits only, no real money.
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